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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."